On Game Theory and the Logic of Bandit Identifiers

[bazbake 456]

Bandit identifiers. Some survivors enjoy the possibility of being stalked by murderers. Bandits think it will ruin immersion. They also think it will break the game.

Let me address those points in order.

1. They'll still be able to hunt you.
   
2. Maybe. Depends on how it's implemented.
   
3. No. No. No no no no no no no no no no no no. NO!
   

To elaborate on that last point...considering how powerful the weapons are in this game....

1. Bandits are KoS. Period. No matter what you do, they want to shoot you first and take your stuff.
   
2. Survivors are not KoS. They won't shoot until you shoot.
   
3. Bandits will always kill survivors unless they miss.
   

Here's what happens when two players meet: [Example 1]

1. Bandit meets Bandit = 50/50 chance of being shot or shooting first.
   
2. Bandit meets Survivor = Bandit will shoot while survivor hesitates.
   
3. Survivor finds Survivor = Survivors won't shoot. Survivors lose nothing. Survivors gain nothing.
   

So 75% of the time a bandit meets another player, they will successfully take someone's stuff. Half of the time a survivor meets somebody, they get to live. You see where this is going. It's harder to survive as a survivor than it is to murder and rob people. The combination of ridiculously powerful guns and the inability to read people makes it so that bandits are more likely to take everything someone has than survivors are to walk away alive.

Logic says that survivors will eventually give up and become bandits. Not only will their odds of not dying go up by 25%, but their odds of getting someone else's loot will go from 0% to 75%. It's going to happen. The only thing stopping a total conversion is time, new players who don't know any better, and the liberal, constant, and pervasive use of metagaming (using forums, chatrooms, ventrilo, mumble, walkthroughs, and bringing your friends along in order to circumvent the limits of the game.)

The nature of the system is that bandits know exactly how it works. Don't let the impassioned pleas for game balance fool you, they know the game is broken. They're counting on it staying that way.

Don't believe me? Well, what happens if bandits are identified? [Example 2]

1. Bandit finds bandit = 50/50 chance of being shot or shooting first.
   
2. Bandit meets survivor = 50/50 chance of being shot or shooting first.
   
3. Survivor finds survivor = Survivors won't shoot.
   

If bandits are identified, then survivors have a 75% chance of surviving encounters with other players and a 25% chance of getting someone's loot. Bandits have a 50% chance of looting someone and a 50% chance of being killed.

To put this into perspective, what are the odds for a bandit in a system where everyone is a bandit? [Example 3]

1. Bandit finds bandit = 50/50 chance of being shot or shooting first. 50/50 chance of getting loot.
   

Exactly the same. If you're a bandit, there's no difference between a game full of nothing but bandits and a server where the bandits are identified as bandits. Bandits interested in PvP, who are looking for player on player combat and want to test themselves and reap the rewards of their murderous urges after triumphing over the weak will never notice the difference between a game where bandits are treated like bandits and a game where everyone is a bandit.

It's the other ones that are terrified. The ones who shoot you in the face after you heal them. The ones who who shout friendly and then pump you full of lead. The players that don't want to be identified as bandits are the ones that would never survive a straight-up fight. They're the ones that could never play a game where the entire world sees them as they see the entire world. The very idea horrifies them and puts them in a panic.

Oh, look, here they come now....

[Fraggle (DayZ) 15720]

It's not just bandits that think it will break the game. I'm a medic and don't want to see identifiers like this. I have a few murders under my belt, all in self defense, so what category do i fall into?

If bandits want to pick up the clothing and choose to wear it then that's cool, but an enforced game mechanic trying to pigeon hole people is never going to work.

Edited August 6, 2012 by Fraggle

[Dr. Fever 7]

I don't know if its the right way to approach the issue or not but beans for the effort

[bazbake 456]

It's not just bandits that think it will break the game. I'm a medic and don't want to see identifiers like this. I have a few murders under my belt, all in self defense, so what category do i fall into?

If bandits want to pick up the clothing and choose to wear it then that's cool, but an enforced game mechanic trying to pigeon hole people is never going to work.

I think you mean that it's immediately going to work. Seriously, "Don't fix it...it's already broken for me?"

I'm on board with a period of amnesty, though.

Edited August 6, 2012 by BazBake

[jackcrow 129]

I think there needs to be a system, but for more than 1 reason. I think bandits should not only be identified, but should also be able to have something to show for it, bragging rights so to speak.

I think what will really ruin the game is the feeling that its hopeless to be anything other than a bandit. Thats the real threat and unless there is some type of incentive in either direction players will take the easy route of KoS.

Maybe a way for survivors to group up. Right now you have 3 choices:

1 - Fodder

2 - Bandit

3 - Join survivor clan

There area few rare exceptional lone wolfs out there, but they are rare.

Edited August 6, 2012 by jackcrow

[Fraggle (DayZ) 15720]

Actually, it's not that it's never going to work. It's that it's obviously going to work. Immediately. As soon as it's implemented.

But once you institute a new system you have to take into account the fact that we all spent so long without having any system in place. I'm sure your murder totals would be reset.

I don't want them to be reset thanks, nor do I want to be tagged as a bandit in the future for being involved in firefights. It's too much of a grey area to just be labelled as a bandit for having kills.

[Wargunner 55]

I like it. Well thought out. Would be great to be a bandit hunter but you just can't tell, you end up becoming what you're against because you made a mistake.

And a bit off-topic, dunno if it's just me but I hardly ever get bandit kills, they all go to the murder count, even when I hear their heart beat.

[bazbake 456]

I don't want them to be reset thanks, nor do I want to be tagged as a bandit in the future for being involved in firefights. It's too much of a grey area to just be labelled as a bandit for having kills.

Search "bandit/survivor/humanitarian" and have a look at that. Allows plenty of gray areas where killing people doesn't count as murder. Also systems for restoring humanity.

I don't want them to be reset thanks, nor do I want to be tagged as a bandit in the future for being involved in firefights. It's too much of a grey area to just be labelled as a bandit for having kills.

The current system is broken/doesn't work. You get murders if you shoot someone that hasn't wounded you yet. But since sniper rifles are one-shot kills, you get murders even if you kill someone who is shooting at you so you have to let them kill you basically or eat the murder.

The system I mentioned above resolves this. I should probably find the link.

In short:

1. If you're unarmed, killing you is a murder. Hurting you costs some humanity as well.
   
2. Raise your weapon/swap weapons/reach into your inventory and you're tagged as a threat. Killing you is fine.
   
3. Four seconds after you lower your weapon/have finished swapping to your inventory item/go unarmed again, shooting you is a murder.
   
4. Bandits can always be killed.
   

It'd work like your standard MMO PvP tag. Combined with bandit identification, it would balance out the risk/reward making bandits only have a 50/50 chance of benefitting from encounters instead of having a 75% chance as it currently is. And it would still make banditry a viable option since bandits are more likely to get good loot by killing people than they are by being nice.

Edited August 6, 2012 by BazBake

[Chambers (DayZ) 27]

Since the skins are gone, I'm a lone wolf and I've only killed maybe 4 or 5 people (there's no way its more than 10) over the entire time I've been playing (since late May/early June). I have no idea if a skin/identifier is implemented that I'd be a bandit or not.

I wish there was a way to check my humanity level. I don't need it in-game, or updated that often, and even though I know it doesn't 'mean' anything right now, it would be nice to check every now and then.

Right now my only option is to find a friendly to ask what my heart rate is, and hope they don't lie. Screw that.

1. Survivor finds Survivor = Survivors won't shoot. Survivors lose nothing. Survivors gain nothing.
   

They do have a chance to gain something, though. Possibly trades, teaming up, shared intel, a slight increase in the faith of humanity, etc.

Edited August 6, 2012 by Chambers

[Fraggle (DayZ) 15720]

Search "bandit/survivor/humanitarian" and have a look at that. Allows plenty of gray areas where killing people doesn't count as murder. Also systems for restoring humanity.

Cheers, I will, thanks for the heads up.

[haviv[3rdid] 57]

I'm OK with ID's but only if the other player is 5-10 m away

[bazbake 456]

I'm OK with ID's but only if the other player is 5-10 m away

So you're cool with banditry being a 50/50 success/failure rate at 5 meters. But at 11 meters it should definitely remain a 75% chance of success.

Got it.

They do have a chance to gain something, though. Possibly trades, teaming up, shared intel, a slight increase in the faith of humanity, etc.

There's a chance the survivor will kill the other survivor out of boredom. Is it likely? No. If the survivors are equally matched, the survivors get nothing. Zero-sum. If the survivor and bandit are equally matched, the bandit shoots first, takes the survivor's stuff, and walks away better off. Just about every time, in fact. Benefit.

Edited August 6, 2012 by BazBake

[Chambers (DayZ) 27]

It would be great if the devs posted the humainty rankings maybe 1/week.

Put it on a separate server to separate the load, or just release that week's list as a torrent. Would this really be a big deal to do?

If making them all public is an issue, maybe you have to enter, say, the last 8 characters of you CD key and your (last used) profile name to verify identity, and it emails your humanity to you every week.

I'd volunteer a my webserver to host the site if needed. Keep the actual data private or elsewhere, even from me, and I'd gladly give you the processor time.

[vitdom 56]

You're making an obvious point, but clearly ignoring the peripheral & environmental factors, which makes DayZ and ArmA 2 what it is.

Edited August 6, 2012 by Vitdom

[bazbake 456]

You're making an obvious point, but clearly ignoring the peripheral & environmental factors, which makes DayZ and ArmA 2 what it is.

To paraphrase your point:

"We all know that bandits looking like survivors is like survivors betting that neither coin in a double coin toss will come up heads. And playing a bandit is like betting at least one of them will. But sometimes coins land on their sides!"

While I understood what you're trying to say...I find it unconvincing.

Edited August 6, 2012 by BazBake

[Ankhenaten 111]

Survivor meets survivor team up meet bandit

Bandit shoots survivor 1 survivor 2 shoots bandit

100 % Chance of bandit death 50% death chance for survivor.

So bandit identifier is 100% death chance for teamed up bandits.

Only sniper bandits can really survive then if your team mate isn't sleeping in a close encounter.

The GT is only correct for lone wolf players.

[septuscap 42]

Your odds are completely manufactured though. What about the fact that encounters aren't dice rolls? Outcomes are dictated by preparedness, caution, stealth, etc, not just 50/50 dice rolls. What about the fact that survivor/PvE playstyles are LESS risky? In order to play as a bandit you have to constantly put yourself in PvP situations and come out on top. To play as a survivor you can use low traffic areas to survive, AVOID other players (far easier than killing them), and remain concealed.

When using stats, you have to realize that they are dominated by the majority who suck at the game, and no game should be designed around that demographic.

The only thing bandit identifiers would help with are survivors who are trying to decide whether to BREAK concealment and greet a random stranger they would otherwise have the jump on. I think we should wait and see if base building allows for survivors to meet up in-game before bringing back bandit skins and having survivors spamming qq's about self defense again. I honestly don't think BANDITS are really opposed to them -- as a bandit myself it honestly felt like earning my stripes, and others in my group would mock you for NOT having the bandit skin.

[Inception. 9443]

True bandits don't kill on sight everytime, that's murderers. Sheesh.

[jstarkreborn 29]

I have to agree with some of the other people that posted here, I wouldn't want to be labeled as a bandit because I killed a few survivors that shot at me. Then again I'm a lone wolf so it wouldn't really matter...

[lobo1845 9]

I'd give you more beans if i could. For me the tension of meeting someone and approaching them left shortly after the bandit skins were first removed, since after so many attempts it seemed much better to just leave them or shot them if they saw me. Which is sad, since that was one of the most unique experiences of this game and death-matching is one of the most overused experiences in FPS's.

Even though I don't have much of a problem with self defense murders, the skin doesn't last long with 1 kill and you'd have to be clueless to not be able to lay low for a bit in 225 square kilometers of countryside for a bit. I do think maybe an extra skin should be involved, where 1 murder gets you the bandit lite skin, and more gets you the full blown bandit skin. At least it lowers the probability of getting shot on site.

Either way the mechanics as they are now are skewed so far in favor of banditry it's not funny.

[bazbake 456]

Survivor meets survivor team up meet bandit

Bandit shoots survivor 1 survivor 2 shoots bandit

100 % Chance of bandit death 50% death chance for survivor.

So bandit identifier is 100% death chance for teamed up bandits.

Because bandits clearly can't shoot at the same time? I don't even know what you're getting at there. The way it works, the bandits almost always win in this scenario. If bandits are identified, though, then there's now a 50/50 chance that at least one survivor escapes and a 50/50 chance that one bandit escapes. Keep adding bandits and survivors if you want, man, it won't make you less wrong. Without bandit identification, bandits are a lot more likely to survive encounters with other people than survivors are.

Your odds are completely manufactured though. What about the fact that encounters aren't dice rolls? Outcomes are dictated by preparedness, caution, stealth, etc, not just 50/50 dice rolls. What about the fact that survivor/PvE playstyles are LESS risky? In order to play as a bandit you have to constantly put yourself in PvP situations and come out on top. To play as a survivor you can use low traffic areas to survive, AVOID other players (far easier than killing them), and remain concealed.

Another "sometimes the coin lands on its edge" argument? Survivors have a challenge, bandits have an advantage. Survivors aren't guaranteed loot in any encounter. Bandits are guaranteed loot whenever they see someone first. If they see a bandit first, they shoot the bandit and take their loot. If they see a survivor first, they shoot the survivor and take their loot. If they see a survivor after the survivor sees them, they shoot the survivor and take their loot. If they see the bandit after the bandit sees them, they get shot and lose their loot.

One out of four. 25% chance of a bandit dying in any encounter with another player.

Now, if you're a survivor, you see a survivor, you don't shoot...whoops, nevermind, it's a bandit -- he takes your loot. A survivor sees you first -- no, wait, it's a bandit, he took your loot. If you see a survivor, neither one of you shoots. If a survivor sees you, neither one of you shoots.

Two out of four. 50% chance of a survivor dying in any encounter with another player.

And you want to tell me that it's a challenge to play as a bandit by giving me this nonsense about survivors playing more carefully? Know why they play more carefully? Because they're twice as likely to die as you are.

There's a reason you don't play "assassin" with more than one assassin. Everyone would be dead!

If you're defending PvP and want to continue to fight other players, there's no reason for you to cower behind a survivor skin unless you won't stand a chance in a fight. But that's probably the point you're getting at...

Edited August 6, 2012 by BazBake

[Kaiku 0]

I don't really like the bandit identifier idea and I'll use myself as example to explain why.

Generally (there are exceptions) I do tend to KOS armed people, especially in the north. This behaviour would certainly give me a bandit identifier, but I don't kill unarmed or backstab/betray people. I can be friendly too at times and have patched strangers up. But if I'm classified as a bandit, no one will interact with me or believe my good intentions because they see me as a scary bandit. They will just shoot me on sight or run/hide.

Scenario 1, with bandit identifier:

I've got bandit skin. Someone sees me entering a barn and will shoot me on sight, because I'm an evil "bandit."

Scenario 2, without bandit identifier:

I've got survivor skin. Someone sees me entering a barn, but instead of killing me he decides to risk it and starts chatting, saying he's friendly and asking if i'm too. Considering he could've already killed me, I tend to trust him. We could go on and have epic adventures together. I won't betray this guy, even if he has better stuff than me.

tl;dr:

I don't believe everyone who likes a bit of PvP is always 100% bandit 24/7. At least I'm not. But the bandit identifier will make strangers think I am. That means even less group play and more PvP.

[adrianadrian 1]

Personally I'm not cool with it. Part of the strength of Day Z is not knowing whether you should trust another survivor. The indicators are also misleading, I think. Whether someone looks like a bandit or not does not reflect how they will react to you. Humanity resets with each life, right? When a bandit dies he will look like a survivor.

I did like Rocket's idea of making a player's hands/arms bloody for an hour or so after looting a corpse, though. That's more ambiguous.

[DemonGroover 8836]

I am a bit torn on this issue. On the one hand i DO want there to be skins and such which can identify you as a Survivor or a Bandit, but on the other hand i really dont think an enforced identifier should be implemented.

If there were skins which players could recognise as being Friendly then those friendly Survivors would wear those skins. Would a bandit wear a bandit skin if given the choice though? Probably not, and some would even choose to look like a Survivor to gain trust before shooting you in the face.

Why would a bandit look any different to a Survivor? Unless they wanted to look like the gang from Mad Max then there would be no way of knowing someones intentions. Forcing an identifier onto a player, though great for Survivor gameplay, isnt reailistic, or authentic.

I really dont know the solution to this problem - every solution seems to move towards an identifier based on humanity. Perhaps you could go the other way, identify players with good humanity but not bad. That way a player could choose to gain a skin identifier by his actions instead of one being enforced.

[Fribox 34]

AVOID other players (far easier than killing them)

Going around an entire city is easier than sneaking up on some careless dumbass and poping him twice with an AK?

PvP sure does take alot of skill in this game.