NVG's an GPS

[ZedsDeadBaby 2287]

No' date=' you do not, you don't divide or multiple the chance, it's the same as poker here[/quote']

It's not the same as poker, actually. Poker events are not indepedent because they are drawing from the same 52 card deck. Once you draw a card, you can't draw it again. That's not how loot works in the game. Every pile is indepedent of every other pile. A pair of NVGs in one pile does not prevent it spawning in the next.

Trust me, this is very basic statistics here. I linked a tutorial video in my post above to help you understand.

you don't multiply chances, it's the same individual chance over a period of different piles. 0.11% over 18 not 0.11 * 18 = 1.92%.

You are confused. We are not asking what your chances of finding the NVGs are in each individual pile but what your chances are of finding at least one pair after 18 attempts.

Consider a coin. If you toss it 18 times are your chances of getting heads once 50%? No, of course not. It's much higher than that after 18 trials because you only need one heads (one pair of NVGs) to "succeed." Each event is 50%, but the odds of one head in 18 tosses = 1 - 0.5^18 = 99.9996185%.

You are wrong

I'm really not dude. Watch the video I linked. Look at my math.

By your logic I have a 100% chance if looting enough to encounter NVG's/GPS, this isn't the case.

No, that's not my logic nor the math I showed. No value of X for the equation 1 - 0.9989^X results in 100%. You can approach 100% after infinite trials, as you would expect, but never reach it. You need to re-read my post and watch the video. Can't make it any clearer for you than I have, but I'll try.

Your odds of finding NVGs in ONE pile is 0.11%.

Your odds NOT finding NVGs in ONE pile is 99.89%.

Your odds of NOT finding NVGs in TWO piles isn't just your odds of not finding them in the second pile but your odds of not finding them in the first AND not finding them in the second.

In statistics, when we have an "and" we multiply the probabilities of each separate event to reach the combined probabilities of the events. This is absolutely elementary statistics and I can't argue with you about something so basic so please just accept it or look up that AND means multiply.

So your odds of not finding them in pile one and pile two = 0.9989 * 0.9989 = 0.9978 or a 99.78% chance of not finding them in two piles - a 0.22% chance of finding them.

Odds of not finding them in one and two and three =0.9989 * 0.9989 * 0.9989 = 0.996703629 or 99.67%.

It is true that for T consecutive independent events the odds of "at least one" occurrence of the event A is 1-P(not A)^T. That's a very basic equation and literally day one stats stuff. Crack a book or just watch the video I linked.

Please?

(Also, you can see kaylo below has demonstrated similar math. He clearly also has a basic understanding of stats. Can we stop arguing now?)

[davidcastle 19]

0.11% in 18 loot piles is still only 1.96% chance of finding them.

Some of it is luck but some of the commonality of these supposedly rare items comes from some rather unscrupulous people who happen to know how to turn 1 pair into 16 or 32 with a few "accidental" server restarts.

then you server hop 10 times at 5 minutes per hop that 20% chance in 50 minutes. Some people do this for hours each night and with multiple clan people.

---

Also there is tent farming which doesn't even require server hopping and is totally legal. You just have a group of 4 or 5 and you place alot of tents hidden by a good loot spot. LOOT EVERYTHING regardless of whether you want it and throw it in tents (ignore overflow) then you run out like 100m wait for a while run back in and everything is respawned, repeat process.

[kaylo 11]

the math to see your odds is this

1 - ( .9989^(loot spawns)

so 1 - (.9989^(9.6)

9.6 being the average amount of loot spawns in both buildings combined

1- .9894898 (odds of you not getting)

~1.1% chance to find nvgs if nobody has cleared both barracks before you per trip

[davidcastle 19]

totally legal, just... not imersive, but hey im at 250 hours on this game so w/e right?

[bjwimer 2]

Isn't the percentage based on spawning as one person gets in range. So in theory if you are in a group of 5ish that increases the odds. I know it seems the piles gets bigger the more people I have in my group.

[WalkerDown (DayZ) 296]

Tip: loot pile at barracks and you gonna have your chaces multiplied every 5-10 minutes or so.

PS: don't hurry to find anything, since after you did you'll realize that the fun were finding em, not using em... you will not be a super-hero, you'll die like before. ;)

[duddbudda 33]

my team were raiding NWA and some lonely bastard tried to sneak through our perimeter

I put a DMR round in him and a mate's AK cut him down as he fled

he was fully loaded: my bud took his NVGs but accidentally clicked 'respawn' half an hour later, so I claimed them

I lost them four days later while gutting a cow north of black lake - the server had only three unknowns on it and was pitch black :/

a couple days ago another teammate killed someone trying to loot berezino while we had it locked down, the poor sod had everything and our chap gladly took his NVGs

as we moved out there was an engagement near the hospital and on the hill to the northeast

I was alone on the factory side facing, and killing, the rival squad with my DMR

I expected a flank and asked for someone to come down and cover my back

the NVG-bearer obliged, but instead of covering my rear wanted to keep an eye on the action himself

I didn't want to spoil his fun and didn't order him to face the rear

minutes later someone unloaded an MP5 SD6 into his back

I avenged my teammate but felt no remorse keeping the NVGs for myself

together our team has 1000 hours in Chernarus, but we've only ever found NVGs and rangers on our prey

loot farmers are scum and you should feel like scum and I hope we kill you thousands of times

re: probabilty

chance of NVGs per loot pile = 0.40 (chance of any pile having anything) * 0.11 (chance anything is NVGs) = 0.044%

[Publik 404]

Found mine in a barrack at NW airfield. I saw the text on the scroll wheel and was like "fuuuuuuuuu... I was about to go to the coast and have my first tour in the bean warz". Lost it later, killed the guy that found them, got killed by his buddy.

Edit: Found my GPS once on a corpse.

[SupWithThat 2]

I've only ever found NVGs on corpses and in while raiding camps.

(Four pairs that I've personally found)

[c.allen.rosario@gmail.com 0]

According to the loot table ( http://picacid.com/arma2/loot_en.html ) in a military barracks:

12 loot piles

0.40 chance of an item spawning in a loot pile

0.11 chance of an NVG spawning in a loot pile that spawned an item

The odds of getting a NVG in a barracks is equal to 100% minus the odds of not getting an NVG in a barracks. So, the odds of not getting an NVG in any loot pile is:

1 - (0.40 * 0.0011) = 0.99956

Now the odds of not getting an NVG in a barracks is:

(1 - (0.40 * 0.0011)) ^ 12 = 0.99473

Now all we need to do to get the chances of an NVG spawning in a barracks is subtract our previous result by 100%.

1 - ((1 - (0.40 * 0.0011)) ^ 12) = 0.00526

So we have a chance of 0.526% chance of getting an NVG in a barracks.

Now, what is the chance of getting a pair of NVG given that we visit N barracks?

1 - ((1 - (0.40 * 0.0011)) ^ (12 * N))

So, visiting a barracks 100 times would give you a ~41% chance of getting a single NVG.

[CrossShade 4]

According to the loot table ( http://picacid.com/arma2/loot_en.html ) in a military barracks:

12 loot piles

0.40 chance of an item spawning in a loot pile

0.11 chance of an NVG spawning in a loot pile that spawned an item

The odds of getting a NVG in a barracks is equal to 100% minus the odds of not getting an NVG in a barracks. So' date=' the odds of not getting an NVG in any loot pile is:

1 - (0.40 * 0.0011) = 0.99956

Now the odds of not getting an NVG in a barracks is:

(1 - (0.40 * 0.0011)) ^ 12 = 0.99473

Now all we need to do to get the chances of an NVG spawning in a barracks is subtract our previous result by 100%.

1 - ((1 - (0.40 * 0.0011)) ^ 12) = 0.00526

So we have a chance of 0.526% chance of getting an NVG in a barracks.

Now, what is the chance of getting a pair of NVG given that we visit N barracks?

1 - ((1 - (0.40 * 0.0011)) ^ (12 * N))

So, visiting a barracks 100 times would give you a ~41% chance of getting a single NVG.

[/quote']

Except yours and the other guys maths are flawed.

If we got a representation of people visiting the barracks 100 times we would see that nowhere near 41% of the players had gotten NVG's or GPS's.

That maths doesn't work with percentile based loot spawns.

[Oliva 2]

people are using too much numbers.

its everything fifty-fifty.

or you find it, or not! simple as that :D

[Eric0965 0]

I've only found a GPS twice...

Once on a bandit I killed, and the second time on my own corpse lol... After a horrible encounter with a bugged house floor, with only about 300 blood on me, a zed hits me once and I start bleeding... I die, respawn and then race back to my corpse and pick everything up again xD

I've never found any NVG's, I've made many trips to the NWAF, and I've also found a few heli crashes, but still nothing :/

The barracks I can understand, because most often someone's already been through there, OR been loot-piling the shit out of the place... But I have yet to give up hope :D One day I shall be the lucky one!

[bonafide 2]

I found GPS in a deer stand. Looted NVG's and a Rangefinder off a fellow bandit I shot in the face.

[ZedsDeadBaby 2287]

Except yours and the other guys maths are flawed.

Dude. Stop. You're wrong. How many people have to point it out? Just go watch the fucking beginner's tutorial video I linked that shows' date=' step by excruciating step, exactly why our math is not flawed.

P(A) over t trials is equal to 1.00 - P(not A)^t. So P(nvg) over t loot piles = 1.00 - P(not nvg)^t.

That's it. That's just it. That's all there fucking is to it. Chapter motherfucking one of any fucking text on statistics. I tried to be polite stop being a fucking retard about it.

Here's another link. Note: To find the probability of two independent events that occur in sequence, find the probability of each event occurring separately, and then multiply the probabilities. Looking in one loot pile and then another are two independent events that occur in sequence, so to find the probability of finding NVGs we multiply the probabilities of not finding them in one pile by the probability of not finding them in the second, and take that away from 100% (the set of all possible results). Continue like this for any number of loot piles - in other words, 1.00 - P(not nvg)^t.

And yet another. Note: If events are independent, then the probability of them both occurring is the product of the probabilities of each occurring.

And another helpful video.

Can I stop now?

Go away. Read. Watch. Learn. Come back when you're ready to thank us for teaching you something about stats that your pompous ass thought you already had such a grasp on but clearly didn't so when you go off to college in the fall you can act like you knew it all along and impress all the freshman girls.

[c.allen.rosario@gmail.com 0]

According to the loot table ( http://picacid.com/arma2/loot_en.html ) in a military barracks:

12 loot piles

0.40 chance of an item spawning in a loot pile

0.11 chance of an NVG spawning in a loot pile that spawned an item

The odds of getting a NVG in a barracks is equal to 100% minus the odds of not getting an NVG in a barracks. So' date=' the odds of not getting an NVG in any loot pile is:

1 - (0.40 * 0.0011) = 0.99956

Now the odds of not getting an NVG in a barracks is:

(1 - (0.40 * 0.0011)) ^ 12 = 0.99473

Now all we need to do to get the chances of an NVG spawning in a barracks is subtract our previous result by 100%.

1 - ((1 - (0.40 * 0.0011)) ^ 12) = 0.00526

So we have a chance of 0.526% chance of getting an NVG in a barracks.

Now, what is the chance of getting a pair of NVG given that we visit N barracks?

1 - ((1 - (0.40 * 0.0011)) ^ (12 * N))

So, visiting a barracks 100 times would give you a ~41% chance of getting a single NVG.

[/quote']

Except yours and the other guys maths are flawed.

If we got a representation of people visiting the barracks 100 times we would see that nowhere near 41% of the players had gotten NVG's or GPS's.

That maths doesn't work with percentile based loot spawns.

Why doesn't the math work?

[CrossShade 4]

Except yours and the other guys maths are flawed.

Dude. Stop. You're wrong. How many people have to point it out? Just go watch the fucking beginner's tutorial video I linked that shows' date=' step by excruciating step, exactly why our math is not flawed.

P(A) over t trials is equal to 1.00 - P(not A)^t. So P(nvg) over t loot piles = 1.00 - P(not nvg)^t.

That's it. That's just it. That's all there fucking is to it. Chapter motherfucking one of any fucking text on statistics. I tried to be polite stop being a fucking retard about it.

Here's another link. Note: To find the probability of two independent events that occur in sequence, find the probability of each event occurring separately, and then multiply the probabilities. Looking in one loot pile and then another are two independent events that occur in sequence, so to find the probability of finding NVGs we multiply the probabilities of not finding them in one pile by the probability of not finding them in the second, and take that away from 100% (the set of all possible results). Continue like this for any number of loot piles - in other words, 1.00 - P(not nvg)^t.

And yet another. Note: If events are independent, then the probability of them both occurring is the product of the probabilities of each occurring.

And another helpful video.

Can I stop now?

Go away. Read. Watch. Learn. Come back when you're ready to thank us for teaching you something about stats that your pompous ass thought you already had such a grasp on but clearly didn't so when you go off to college in the fall you can act like you knew it all along and impress all the freshman girls.

Except for that maths cannot be applied to percentile based loot.

Again, by your logic looting 1000 times would net over a 100% chance to find NVG's. Not actually true.

[PiddlePuss 0]

Again' date=' by your logic looting 1000 times would net over a 100% chance to find NVG's. Not actually true.

[/quote']

Nothing in what either of them wrote says that at all. Only that your chances would approach 100% the more times you check.

Christ, math heretics like you drive people that actually understand stats insane.

Guess what, CrossShade? You're wrong. Dead wrong.

Also, .9999 repeating really does equal one, and you should always change doors in the Monty Hall problem.

[ZedsDeadBaby 2287]

Except for that maths cannot be applied to percentile based loot.

Uhh' date=' what the fuck? Did you just say statistics can't be applied to things that are percentile based? Do you realize how incredibly retarded that is?

Again, by your logic looting 1000 times would net over a 100% chance to find NVG's. Not actually true.

AGAIN FUCKING NO. DO THE MOTHERFUCKING MATH YOURSELF.

1000 trials = 1 - (0.9989^1000) = 0.66733039 = 66.7%

66.7% is not greater than 100% you stupid cunt.

We are subtracting a positive value from 1. You cannot subtract a positive value from 1 and end up with a value equal to or greater than 1. NOW WE ARE BACK TO KINDERGARTEN.

Please just fucking stop.

[PiddlePuss 0]

Except for that maths cannot be applied to percentile based loot.

Uhh' date=' what the fuck? Did you just say statistics can't be applied to things that are percentile based? Do you realize how incredibly retarded that is?

Again, by your logic looting 1000 times would net over a 100% chance to find NVG's. Not actually true.

AGAIN FUCKING NO. DO THE MOTHERFUCKING MATH YOURSELF.

1000 trials = 1 - (0.9989^1000) = 0.66733039 = 66.7%

66.7% is not greater than 100% you stupid cunt.

Please just fucking stop.

See, CrossShade?

See what you've done by being dumb?

He blew a fuse.

[ZedsDeadBaby 2287]

How do schoolteachers do it these days? I would literally keep a blowgun and crate of poison darts under my desk.

Apologies to all for my colorful language. I'm going to retire from the human race for the rest of the evening and try to convince myself this entire conversation was a fevered dream.

[..Critical..: 4]

GPS top level of Northen elektro fire station. Useless really when you already know the map inside out

[nicotinkickballovich 0]

Well I did find a GPS twice already. Both were found in Stary Camps, but as for NVG's I never saw them so far. Two of my buddies however managed to find them in a heli crash site, as for barracks nope nothing. As far as I know most people find NVG's by killing hackers. A few people for example go to russian servers that are filled with them and they get geared up all the way after a successful jackpot.

[wearelegion (DayZ) 1]

Players spawn the best loot.

[ahyokata 15]

The drop chances are low, I have never seen one in any barracks. However, that drop (acquire) rate can go up if you are lucky enough to hunt another human that has them.

I was out "huntin' wabbit" near the NW field in a location from which I could fire my sidearm with no Zed threat... well, someone stepped into my trap. The reason he bled out was because he had a sweet DMR, and luckily he had NVGs on him. /win