The Life Expectancy guessing thread

[BigEyeGuy 0]

Well, here we go.

Alpha 1.7.1 is out and people are spawning with a flash light and no weapons, but the other big factor is that people can sort of tell bandits now with the heart beat feature, The current average life length is sitting on 33 after climbing up from 29 in a little over a week.

What do you think will happen to the life expectancy in the next 2 weeks?

My guess is that in a week it will be down to 22 or so, any guesses?

It will be fun to keep up guessing as new version of Day Z come out, I love the way Rocket just wings it right now and tries anything he feel may work.

UPDATE:

1.7.1 update winner - ImaffoI

1.7.2 winner - still to come

[ansonh92 0]

Down to 25 on first few days then back to 30 on second week.

Learning from mistakes, you know.

[duddbudda 33]

my guess:

if players didn't waste so many lives respawning to get nearer their corpse, or whatever, avg life would be over 90 minutes

will this update change anything? I don't know, I haven't tried it yet

[BigEyeGuy 0]

my guess:

if players didn't waste so many lives respawning to get nearer their corpse' date=' or whatever, avg life would be over 90 minutes

[/quote']

Interesting, didn't take that in account, what Ansonh92 said kind of makes sense too.

[Wired 1]

Nah, I think that a combination of little to no gear and bandits being already geared is going to result in some sort of bloodbath.

[Big Boss (DayZ) 23]

my guess:

if players didn't waste so many lives respawning to get nearer their corpse' date=' or whatever, avg life would be over 90 minutes

[/quote']

Interesting, didn't take that in account, what Ansonh92 said kind of makes sense too.

Rocket mentioned that deaths within a few minutes were not added to the data. (Ex, instant bean deaths, respawns etc)

(EDIT: http://dayzmod.com/forum/showthread.php?tid=10914 - it is somewhere in there, plus additional relevant discussion about life expectancy. )

[BigEyeGuy 0]

(EDIT: http://dayzmod.com/forum/showthread.php?tid=10914 - it is somewhere in there' date=' plus additional relevant discussion about life expectancy. )

[/quote']

Yeah I saw that thread, this one is a bit different, having fun guessing what it would be.

[logan23 118]

I say it will drop to 28-26 mins

[Big Boss (DayZ) 23]

Yeah I saw that thread' date=' this one is a bit different, having fun guessing what it would be.

[/quote']

Indeed! Just attempted pushing it in the right direction.

I think it will go up until a beta is established, then it will face-plant again due to public hype / more new players.

[bryantjudoman 3]

Been playing the 1.71 update all night. I think the life expectancy will drop below 20 min.

[Deceptor 9]

Nope it will go up. Reason being more people will get smarter, and such that they have to be more careful. Before they could just run around shoot zombies, but now they have to act like they have to survive.

---

So my guess in two weeks it will be at 40 minutes.

[esaciar 1]

I like a game with a steep learning curve and, since the developers keep listening to their core fan base, this will be a mod with a beautifully accurate level of difficulty.

[Deceptor 9]

I like a game with a steep learning curve and' date=' since the developers keep listening to their core fan base, this will be a mod with a beautifully accurate level of difficulty.

[/quote']

Join the club. :D

[bjwimer 2]

I think it will go up since the makaroni noobs can't shoot everything that moves now. Then they will rage quit because they are not playing survival correctly and go play a more appropriate game for that gameplay. Meanwhile the people that actually play to survive can move without worrying about the COD player running and gunning straight to the nearest town.

[punisher_1 3]

My guess will be 15 minutes or less.

Most people will suicide after one encounter because you will simply not last long. Cities, towns, well any structure are / will be a death trap.

Alot of people will leave the game because it will not be enjoyable anymore. My guess players will demand a change or servers will roll back to older versions.

I'm expecting pitch forks and tourches ( the ones that burn) at the BI office in a few days.

[esaciar 1]

It will average out on balance between shoot and run enthusiasts and survival enthusiasts.

[Tuggo 25]

With the new forced night time gamma, the amped zeds, and starting with no weapon...hmmm. I'd venture to say the average might drop to like 21 min. Like others stated thought it will climb back up after folks adapt.

This is going to be totally brutal to new players learning the ropes. I think it will build character.

[punisher_1 3]

With the new forced night time gamma' date=' the amped zeds, and starting with no weapon...hmmm. I'd venture to say the average might drop to like 21 min. Like others stated thought it will climb back up after folks adapt.

This is going to be totally brutal to new players learning the ropes. I think it will build character.

[/quote']

When I joined this mod the life expectancy was 4 days and 23 hours.

The best I have seen it in the last week was 33 minutes.

I'd say thats an issue.

[Rogo Ignoscant 8]

When I joined this mod the life expectancy was 4 days and 23 hours.

The best I have seen it in the last week was 33 minutes.

I'd say thats an issue.

I agree COMPLETELY.

Why in the HELL are people living for 33 minutes? CRANK IT UP! Bring it down to 5 minutes ... make this game punish you for every mistake you have made.

I don't need a friggen COD / BF3 shooter, I'm salivating for a real insane over the top survival horror where everything is out to get me, and then some.

[BigEyeGuy 0]

my guess:

if players didn't waste so many lives respawning to get nearer their corpse' date=' or whatever, avg life would be over 90 minutes

[/quote']

Interesting, didn't take that in account, what Ansonh92 said kind of makes sense too.

Rocket mentioned that deaths within a few minutes were not added to the data. (Ex, instant bean deaths, respawns etc)

(EDIT: http://dayzmod.com/forum/showthread.php?tid=10914 - it is somewhere in there, plus additional relevant discussion about life expectancy. )

Yeah I saw that thread' date=' this one is a bit different, having fun guessing what it would be.

[/quote']

Indeed! Just attempted pushing it in the right direction.

I think it will go up until a beta is established, then it will face-plant again due to public hype / more new players.

When I joined this mod the life expectancy was 4 days and 23 hours.

The best I have seen it in the last week was 33 minutes.

I'd say thats an issue.

I agree COMPLETELY.

Why in the HELL are people living for 33 minutes? CRANK IT UP! Bring it down to 5 minutes ... make this game punish you for every mistake you have made.

I don't need a friggen COD / BF3 shooter' date=' I'm salivating for a real insane over the top survival horror where everything is out to get me, and then some.

[/quote']

Whoa there partner... hehehe :)

no need to be so aggressive towards other (good) games.

one funny thing I Noticed is that a lot people crave realism but play a fantasy zombie apocalypse game to get it.

Anyway, guys give a number in your guess! next Sunday we will announce the winner :)

we should do this for each new version

My guess: 24 minutes

[heromann1 0]

Im going to go with 26 min

[ImaffoI 22]

28 min

[dissaifer 3]

I'm expecting a quick drop in time for the first week, then a slow build up as people learn how to play in this environment.

1st week of slaughter - 23 mins.

2nd week of "Ah" - 25 mins

[BigEyeGuy 0]

Ok, 2 days after the patch and seems to have only went down to 32

were we all off? is it actually going to increase by Sunday?

no more spawners running around with makrovs going for broke will raise the life span? seems logical.

[BigEyeGuy 0]

Its already friday and were down to only 31 (last sunday was 33 counting sunday to sunday)

we did have a lot of changes though in the last week, and I realize that the changes did not changes AVG life expectancy that much.

I think we underestimated the counting out of insta-deaths

So far ImaffoI and Logan20 were closest at 28 minutes, i don't see it getting below that

---

Maybe all the people logging in the weekend will bring it down, who knows! stay tuned