Loot chance calculations?

[senior_hombre 1]

Hi i have some question about loot information on this map: http://dayzdb.com/map

What exactly is "loot chance"? I think is the chance for one of the "loot spawns" to spawn something at all, is this correct?

If iam right then the following calculation should give the percentage a certain item will be found:

exp: percentage of finding a tent in a supermarket:

a supermarked has 24 "loot spawns" and a "loot chance" of 0.6 this means you get effectively: 24*0.6 = 14.4 loot spawns.

A tent has a "drop chance" of 0.0094 (equals 0.94%), this means the possibility to get no tent in a single supermarket visit is 0.9906^14.4=0.873 (equals 87%), so the percentage to get at least one tent is 1-0.873=0.127 (12.7%).

If iam correct the formula that gives the percentage to find a certain item (one or more of it) in one visit of a loot place is:

P = 1-(1-p)^(LS*LC)

p : item chance

LS : "loot spawns" of the place

LC : "loot chance" of the place

[nivi 4]

I wish it was 12.7% chance to find a tent in supermarket.

Its actually more like 0.28% for 1 loot spot.

And you don't combine chances, each lootpile has its own seperate %, thats why some people raid barracks over 200 times and no nvgs and some find them in few runs.

[senior_hombre 1]

I did combine loot chances, its in the formula, but if the loot chance per spot is realy just 0.28% then the combined chance is indeed only 4%.

But this would mean that the map is wrong. But the maps says 0.28% only for residental loot places iam talking about super markets and they have the higher chances i used (0.94%)

[Metric (DayZ) 6]

Those maps are always wrong.

I learned a long time ago to completely ignore them as they are all based purely on anecdotal evidence.

4 chances in 100 sounds about right for a tent in a supermarket, again, that is purely anecdotal.

Nice formula though, although I think rocket has a rather convoluted and much more complicated algorithm for loot spawns. He'll never clue us in either, takes the mystery out of the game.

[senior_hombre 1]

Ok, if the spawn chances on this certain map (at least it is hosted on the official dayzmod webserver, so i thought it is kind of official too) are made up then the results of the obove formuala are not correct of course.

edit: i just noticed it is not even hosted on the official webserver, my bad.