I agree with number 2. You can actually make it to the airbase no matter where you start. You WILL find food and water there. You WILL find opposition there. Play quiet and stay out of the open and you will be fine. There is no chance of survival for a new player on the coast anywhere. The stocked players always go back to the coast to shoot the easy targets. FEW stay in the cities and wait to combat other armed players. Path of least resistance is usually true. I can die and have everything back within a couple of hours. Take some risks learn some new things, see some new places. You will find it's not quite as tricky as it seems.